Papal Bayes?
[Update — mistaken identity corrected…] Someone with the same name as Robert Prevost, now Pope Leo XIV, published a paper in 1985 evaluating the application of Bayes' Theorem to the question of God's existence. The paper ("Swinburne, Mackie and Bayes' Theorem" ) was published in the International journal for philosophy of religion.
Thomas Bayes (1701-1761) was a Presbyterian minister, but the theorem that bears his name was presented in a posthumously-published work on gambling, "An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances". The Economist once called Bayes' Theorem "the most important equation in the history of mathematics", but Rev. Prevost's paper argued that "the Bayesian method of evaluating the adequacy of theistic explanation … [falls] short both in practice and in principle".
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