Touring the Turing Test again
The buzz about Large Language Models has re-ignited interest in Alan Turing's famous 1950 article "Computing Machinery and Intelligence". Two interesting recent discussions: Jessica Riskin, "A Sort of Buzzing Inside My Head", NYRB 6/25/2023, and Mustafa Suleyman, "The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century's Greatest Dilemma", Random House 9/5/2023.
Suleyman's book won't be released until 9/5/2023, so it's interesting that several outlets have blurbed one of its ideas ten weeks early: Brad Stone, "AI Leader Proposes a New Kind of Turing Test for Chatbots", Bloomberg 6/20/2023, and Sawdah Bhaimiya, "DeepMind's co-founder suggested testing an AI chatbot's ability to turn \$100,000 into \$1 million to measure human-like intelligence", Business Insider 6/20/2023. Based just on Business Insider's title, Suleyman's proposal puzzled me, since we don't usually think of machine-trading systems as measuring intelligence — at least not the intelligence of the system rather than its designer. But in fact Suleyman has something different in mind, more along the lines of an extended "shark tank" competition:
In describing his proposal, Suleyman argues that there’s a misplaced focus in the tech industry on the distant possibility of achieving artificial general intelligence, or AGI: algorithms with cognitive abilities that match or exceed humans’. Instead, he said the more achievable and meaningful short-term goal is what he calls artificial capable intelligence, or ACI: programs that can set goals and achieve complex tasks with minimal human intervention.
To measure whether a machine has achieved ACI, he describes a “modern Turing test” — a new north star for researchers — in which you give an AI \$100,000 and see if it can turn the seed investment into \$1 million. To do so, the bot must research an e-commerce business opportunity, generate blueprints for a product, find a manufacturer on a site like Alibaba and then sell the item (complete with a written listing description) on Amazon or Walmart.com.
Suleyman expects AI will pass this more practical threshold sometime in the next two years. “We don’t just care about what a machine can say; we also care about what it can do,” he writes. And when that happens, he says, “The consequences for the world economy are seismic.”
Read the rest of this entry »