With a hat tip to Bruce Webster, more cartoons for the weekend, this time from Jonathan Rosenberg's Scenes from a Multiverse:
Selection bias and confirmation bias (both old favorites in these parts, especially in connection with people's estimates about who says what, how often, and how long they've been doing it), all in one four-panel strip. And then a well-known problem in hypothesis testing that arises repeatedly in reasoning about language:
In the starkly simple form here, this is: if X then Y; Y is true; therefore X is true. That's just affirming the consequent, which is invalid as a general line of inference. Of course, if you discuss alternatives to X and what follows from them, and if you flesh out predict as something more interesting than mere implication, and if you take into account what would make X false, then maybe we can talk.